Yemen: Before the victory of Yemen’s September 21 Revolution, Riyadh’s ambassador in Sana’a had long dictated the country’s internal affairs, exercising direct influence over national decision-making.

But following the revolution’s triumph, Saudi Arabia launched its military aggression on March 26, 2015, with coalition warplanes bombing Sana’a International Airport and surrounding areas under false pretenses — chiefly “countering Iranian influence” and “restoring legitimacy” to a group that had fled to Riyadh, Ankara, and Abu Dhabi after betraying the Peace and Partnership Agreement.

For forty days, Saudi-led coalition airstrikes targeted civilian sites across Yemen while Sana’a exercised restraint. When Yemen finally responded militarily, a fierce confrontation ensued that lasted more than eight years, during which the justifications for the aggression and blockade crumbled completely.

As the coalition repeatedly failed to achieve its declared goals, its calls for “political dialogue” and “peace initiatives” resurfaced — leading to rounds of direct and mediated negotiations between Sana’a and Riyadh.

One of the key turning points came when delegations from Riyadh and Oman engaged in intensive talks with the Sana’a negotiating team, which maintained that Saudi Arabia was a party to the war, not a neutral mediator.

Under pressure from Yemeni deterrence operations, Riyadh eventually accepted a UN-brokered truce signed on April 2, 2022. The agreement stipulated a halt to hostilities, the lifting of the blockade on Yemeni airports and ports, the payment of public sector salaries, prisoner exchanges, the withdrawal of foreign forces, compensation for war damages, and reconstruction of what the aggression had destroyed.

However, the Saudi side failed to fulfill most of its obligations. Even the clause on cessation of hostilities has been persistently violated despite repeated warnings from the Yemeni leadership.

For over three years, Yemen has lived in a state of “no war, no peace” — a fragile phase suspended between confrontation and negotiation.

Yemen’s participation, both politically and militarily, in the Al-Aqsa Flood operation has further delayed the final resolution of this phase. Yet today, with the unfolding developments following the Gaza agreement, Riyadh finds itself compelled to fully implement the agreed roadmap.

Analysts note that the Kingdom must now reckon with a new Yemen — one stronger, more united, and more capable of shaping regional equations. Failure to adapt, they warn, will lead Riyadh to repeat its past miscalculations.

For Yemen’s leadership, any renewed talks will test Riyadh’s sincerity and its ability to translate words into tangible actions that address the aspirations of the Yemeni people. Should the Kingdom succumb once more to American and Zionist pressure, the Yemeni people have already entrusted their leadership and Armed Forces to chart the next course — one that could redefine the entire balance of stability in the region.

As the saying goes: the coming days will tell.

Analysis translated b02y Almasirah English website