News - Middle East: Analytical report published by The Cradle has revealed a sharp escalation in the struggle for influence between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, noting that the strategic partnership once uniting Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed has morphed into fierce rivalry that is reshaping the Gulf’s alliance landscape, with Yemen emerging as the most prominent theater of this confrontation.

The report explains that the competition has moved beyond diplomatic corridors into extensive on-the-ground maneuvering. While Riyadh seeks to safeguard its strategic interests in eastern Yemen by backing its proxy government in Aden, Abu Dhabi has intensified efforts to empower the Southern Transitional Council, aiming to consolidate control over vital ports and strategic maritime corridors.

According to The Cradle, the UAE has expanded its occupation-linked influence in Aden, Shabwah, and Al-Mahrah, openly challenging Saudi Arabia’s traditional sway in areas such as Hadramawt. Analysts cited in the report say this Emirati push has been met with cautious Saudi countermeasures, including reinforcing military positions and turning to Washington to pressure Abu Dhabi against unilateral actions in Yemen.

The report further links rising tensions in occupied southern Yemen with the recent Saudi-Qatari rapprochement, describing the signing of a joint defense agreement between Riyadh and Doha—along with the launch of a regional railway connectivity project—as a “quiet declaration” of a new phase aimed at regionally isolating Abu Dhabi.

Political researcher Hassan Aliyan was quoted as saying that this emerging Riyadh–Doha axis is driven by shared concerns over what he described as unchecked Emirati expansion, which he said closely aligns with the agenda of the Israeli enemy in the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa. He added that the rift is not new, rooted in longstanding border and oil disputes, but has recently erupted due to diverging economic and political visions.

The Cradle also cited reports indicating that, in 2022, the Saudi royal family considered threatening the UAE with a “blockade” similar to that imposed on Qatar in 2017, amid escalating disputes over oil policy within OPEC+ and intensifying economic competition between Dubai and Riyadh.

The report concludes that Yemen has become a casualty of this deepening fracture within the Gulf Cooperation Council, as the UAE relies on armed proxies and control of ports to bypass traditional chokepoints, while Saudi Arabia favors diplomacy and crisis management to preserve its regional standing.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been key partners in the Saudi-led military coalition that launched its war on Yemen in 2015. Despite their initial alignment, tensions between the two sides have steadily grown over competing strategic, economic, and geopolitical interests, particularly in southern and eastern Yemen.

The UAE has focused on consolidating influence through local armed factions and control of ports and coastal areas, including Aden and key maritime routes in the Arabian Sea and Red Sea. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, has sought to maintain political influence through allied authorities and diplomatic channels, while safeguarding its borders and energy interests.

These divergences have coincided with broader Gulf disputes, including competition over oil policy within OPEC+, regional economic rivalry, and shifting alliances involving Qatar and other Gulf states. Yemen has increasingly become a focal point for these rivalries, compounding the country’s prolonged conflict and humanitarian crisis.